A new study by researchers at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), published in Nature, warns that the Amazon rainforest could face a large-scale collapse at far lower levels of global warming than previously thought if deforestation continues. While the forest could theoretically withstand up to 4.0°C of warming without further clearing, once deforestation reaches 22 to 28 percent, that tipping point drops dramatically to just 1.5 to 1.9°C of warming. With roughly 17 to 18 percent of the Amazon already cleared, scientists emphasize that cutting down trees disrupts the forest’s self-sustaining rainfall cycle, drying out the atmosphere. Under high-emission scenarios, this tipping point could arrive as early as the 2030s or 2040s, releasing massive amounts of stored carbon. However, researchers stress that the collapse is not inevitable and can be prevented by halting deforestation, restoring cleared land, and keeping global warming within 1.5°C.
Environment Pulse Desk: A new study suggests the Amazon rainforest could start collapsing at far lower levels of warming than scientists previously believed, if deforestation continues alongside climate change.
Researchers at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and partner institutions found that forest loss makes the Amazon much more fragile. If no more trees were cut down, the forest would probably hold out until the planet was 3.7-4.0°C warmer than pre-industrial times. But once deforestation reaches 22-28% of the Amazon, that threshold falls to just 1.5-1.9°C of warming. At that point, anywhere from 62% to 77% of the forest could turn into degraded woodland, savanna or grassland.
The uncomfortable part is that we’re already not far off. Roughly 17-18% of the Amazon has been cleared so far.
The study, published in Nature, shows why this happens. The Amazon makes a lot of its own rain: trees release moisture, which falls again as rainfall further along. Clear enough forest and that cycle breaks down, and the drying can spread across hundreds or even thousands of kilometres.
“Deforestation makes the Amazon far less resilient than we previously anticipated,” said lead author Nico Wunderling of PIK. “It dries out the atmosphere and weakens the forest’s own rainfall generation. Even moderate additional warming could then trigger cascading impacts across large parts of the forest.”
Under high-emission, high-deforestation scenarios, the tipping point could arrive as early as the 2030s or 2040s. If it does, the forest could release enormous amounts of stored carbon, which would speed up global warming, shift rainfall patterns and put wildlife and the livelihoods of millions of people at risk.
Still, the researchers stress that none of this is inevitable. Holding warming to 1.5°C, stopping deforestation quickly, cutting forest degradation and restoring cleared land are still the best ways to lower the risk. The message from the study is that the window to act is open, but it’s closing.
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