The developing El Niño weather pattern threatens to increase environmental stress on Keralam’s forests and wildlife by causing severe droughts and water scarcity. With a current 28% reduction in southwest monsoon rainfall, forests face risks such as early drying of water sources, disrupted animal movements, premature forest fires, and escalated human-wildlife conflicts. While local factors like temperature and soil type also play a role, researchers emphasize that proactive planning, local monitoring, and adaptive management strategies are crucial for protecting the biodiversity of the Western Ghats.
Environment Pulse Desk: A developing El Nino (an El Niño) is generating concern among experts regarding increased environmental stress on Kerala’s forests and wildlife. An El Niño is a climate pattern characterized by above-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean. It generally results in reduced rainfall across portions of India including the southern state.
With Kerala already experiencing a 28% reduction in its average annual southwest monsoon rainfall, extended periods of drought could result in streams within forests and water holes drying up much earlier than normal; disrupt animal movements; enhance the risk of fires; and escalate human-wildlife conflicts. However, experts indicate that although the El Niño will play a role in determining how much stress is imposed upon Kerala’s forests and wildlife, other factors such as local rainfall patterns, temperature, and duration of droughts will also be significant determinants of the extent of adverse impacts.
For example, water sources which have historically provided adequate supplies of water until March or April may be depleted prior to that time, forcing animals to move closer to forest edges and human-settled areas. Such movement could potentially result in increased interactions between wildlife and humans. In addition to creating physical stresses due to increased heat and limited access to water, there may be behavioral changes induced in animals, however, further study is required to verify such observations.
Another potential problem area includes fire risk. Extended periods of drought combined with elevated temperatures and lower-than-normal amounts of rainfall during the summer months could result in a premature start to the traditional March-April fire season. Therefore, it may become necessary for authority figures to establish fire breaks along the perimeter of forests earlier than is typically done.
Longer term consequences may include impacts on the health, regeneration capabilities and overall resiliency of ecosystems located within the Western Ghats biodiversity hot spot. Researchers point out that neighboring forests can experience varying levels of stress based upon characteristics such as soil types, elevations, forest types, and distribution of rainfall. To effectively manage risks associated with drought conditions, local monitoring and adaptive management strategies should be implemented.
While no large-scale damage has thus far been directly attributed to the developing El Niño alone, the combination of current rainfall deficits and projected drier conditions necessitate proactive planning and preparedness by forest departments and communities situated adjacent to these ecosystems.
